Paragon Chest Drop Rate

Abadodo

Abadodo

Novice
Hey everyone, while we are all patiently waiting for the server to come back up, I was wondering if they changed the drop rate of the paragon chests ? I originally started playing back in June, and it seemed like the chests dropped a lot more often.

Since I came back in December, my boyfriend and I have yet to get a chest (not counting the christmas chests). And we both have killed TONS of paragons:(. So I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the drop rate? Or am I just very unlucky ? :p
 
Casor

Casor

Adept
You can see how unlucky you are with a simple probability calculation. The following equation is the chance that you will *not* get a chest in 'n' number of paragon kills. Assuming that the drop chance per kill is 10% (which has been stated before).

% chance you won't get a chest = (1 - 0.1)^n, where n is the number of paragon kills.

examples:

n = 10 then, 0.9^10 = 0.35 = 35%
n = 100 then, 0.9^100 = 0.000027 = 0.0027%

as 'n' gets larger the % that you won't get a chest goes toward 0. but, only = 0 when n = infinity. statistically, it is possible (just not very probably) that you could kill paragons for the rest of your life and never see a chest.
 
Casor

Casor

Adept
Look at it this way. Someone eventually wins the Powerball lotto. If you equate your chance of not getting a chest to the odds of winning the Powerball lottery... You would kill 180 paragons and not receive a single chest.
 
Modus

Modus

Master
id rather like to discuss para chest content or platinum coin vendor items.. either of them should be more useful.
 
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