The EXACT same thing happened to me. I didn't touch the arrow and my lockpicking went down from 96.8 to 95, then 94.6. I hit the roof because it took FOREVER to get lockpicking to 96.8. I still never touched the arrow and then started working on the skill and it WENT UP!! back to 95. So I know that it wasn't me misclicking the arrow to make it go down/
I paged a GM twice and posted on the forums and got nothing. I left my computer overnight with the GM paged and was in queue status #1 for 38 hours before giving up.
The end result was that I just had to live with it with no explanation.
Well it did it again got to 95 lockpicking loged on two days after and it was at 94.6 again but I got gains right back up too 95 at this rate I will never gm
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